Scenario 2 – Slight gain for Pakatan Rakyat
Scenario 3 – Pakatan wins the election
If BN succeeds in this, the coalition will add 11 parliamentary seats to the 140 seats won in 2008, giving them a total of 151 parliamentary seats with a comfortable two-thirds majority.
- In 2008, the opposition parties did not form any electoral pact hence any cross-voting among the opposition parties in 2008 was limited.
- PM Najib Razak has already lost one of his trump cards – the timing of the election – and thus he was unable to take Pakatan by surprise. The opposition is ready for elections this time, unlike in 2008.
- The opposition poses a more credible challenge compared to 2008 as they are able to present an alternative budget and election manifesto.
- New voters traditionally favour the opposition.
- Internet penetration rate is higher than in 2008 making it easier for opposition parties to disseminate information. The opposition parties also have an upper hand in the social media war.
- The rise of civil society movements, in particular Himpunan Hijau and Bersih, will help the opposition to garner some fence-sitter votes.