Thursday, July 14, 2011

July 9 Bersih 2.0 Rally CROWD ESTIMATION, 1.00 - 2.30 PM

PUDURAYA: 32,000 people
Area127,536 sq.ft.
Estimated crowd31,884 people (1 person/4 sq.ft.)

The majority of rally participants assembled at Puduraya between 1pm - 2pm. This comprised of a mass of people walking from Kota Raya, Petaling Street and other areas. From the many photos taken, this was the densest crowd in the rally.

After the FRU took action the crowd dispersed in various directions, some to KLCC, some to Tung Shin Hospital and others to Stadium Merdeka via different routes.

While some people were gathered at Bukit Bintang, Stadium Merdeka, KL Sentral and Jalan Sultan, from photo evidence and tweets gathered this was the largest measureable crowd throughout the day.

The later crowd (3-4pm) near the Stadium can be considered a subset of this, along with people from the other areas that managed to reach it.

SG WANG PLAZA: 3,500 people
Area14,000 sq.ft.
Estimated crowd3,500 people (1 person/4 sq.ft.)

Marching from Pudu Plaza, this group was reported arriving at Sg Wang Plaza at 1.15pm. They were reported as moving to Stadium Merdeka on their own path.

KLCC: 5,000 people
Area25,528 sq.ft.
Estimated crowd5,105 people (1 person/5 sq.ft.)

It is not clear how many gathered at KLCC that were not from Pudu or Petaling Street. The only source of information before 3pm were tweeple on the scene reporting no tear-gas (there were false reports at 11 AM), a photo and video of a small crowd, from which this area was derived.

At 4pm the crowd at this area easily doubled, but it cannot be confirmed how many were from Pudu so this increase was not included. A lower density calculation was used due to the crowd being more spread out.

An additional 5,000 were reported halted at KL SENTRAL. An estimated 2,000 more were near the Stadium and other areas.

To calculate the total attendance for the rally, tweets and photos were examined to determine which point in time the crowd was largest. This was determined to be between 1 - 2.30pm.

Polygons (shaded areas) were then generated based on the photos taken within that time-frame in different parts of the city. The area covered by the polygon was calculated using a separate tool, and this area was then divided by a factor based on how dense the crowd was.

If the crowd was standing close together, the factor was 1 person for every 4 sq.ft. (1 person/4 sq.ft.) If the crowd was moving about, or mix of standing close and fair, then it was 1 person for every 5-6 sq.ft. The factors used are stated for each map.

PUDU31,884 people
KLCC5,105 people
SG WANG3,500 people
KL SENTRAL5,000 people
OTHER AREAS2,000 people
TOTAL47,489 people

The margin of error is expected to be +/- 5%. To sum up:
An estimated 45,000 to 50,000
people attended the July 9 Rally.
Disclaimer: The shaded areas on the Google Map are there to give an idea of the area used in calculation. But it is not drawn with the actual latitude/longitude coordinates used in our maths, which was a more detailed polygon.This polygon could not be exported for use in Google Maps, so an approximate shape was redrawn for this site. It should also be noted that all figures on this page are estimates, and not expected to be 100% accurate.


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