瞄准半岛43个巫统议席，刘镇东形容为变天关键

刘镇东

发表于 2017年3月1日 中午11点45分     更新于 2017年3月1日 中午11点49分

来届大选跫音渐近，行动党政治教育主任刘镇东指出，共有43个巫统议席乃是兵家必争之地，而只要攻下30至40个巫统议席，就可能完成政党轮替。

刘镇东发文告说，这43个巫统议席都位于半岛。

“巫统的88席中，有14席在沙巴，1席在纳闽，其余的73席在半岛。半岛73席中，有30席可说是经过巫统‘特别设计’，在最坏的情况下也不会败阵的铁堡垒，剩下的43席是我们必须火力全开的战场。”

“希望联盟与土著团结党必须准备就绪，迎战巫统-伊党-国阵的布局。让巫统输剩30到40个国席，成为新的在野党，并不是不可能。”

巫统会否成为在野党？

刘镇东表示，砂拉越的朋友们经常问他，巫统会否东渡接管砂拉越州政府，并像1994年以后的沙巴那样统治砂州。

他说，这样的担忧并非凭空而来，尤其是现任砂州首长阿邦佐哈里与巫统的关系匪浅。

不过，他说，面对这种提问，他会反问大家两个问题，即巫统能否熬过来届大选，或巫统会否成为一个新的在野党？

“很多人普遍认为，巫统无可匹敌，永远不会被打倒。的确，要让一个掌权超过60年的执政党下台，我们需要一股相当强大的海啸。”

纳吉领导下巫统最脆弱

但他强调，这并不非不可能，而2008与2013年就已见证过政治海啸的发生。

“首先，自独立到2004年大选，巫统透过联盟／国阵执政，并得到可观的非巫裔选民支持。然而，巫统在2005年开始走向右倾，大打马来人至上的种族牌，导致半岛其他国阵成员党逐渐失去支持，马华公会、国大党及民政党在2008与2013年大选兵败如山倒。”

“第二，巫统在2013年后没办法扩张基本盘，因此拉拢伊斯兰党成为了一个很好的选择。巫统希望暗中与伊党串通，将社会撕裂成穆斯林与非穆斯林对立的局面，巫统与伊党的非正式结盟可以因此赢到足够的议席成立联合政府。然而， 巫统与伊斯兰党的合作衍生的问题，是半岛的非巫裔选民，还有沙巴与砂拉越的多数选民不能接受巫统。”

“第三，首相纳吉个人在2013年大选比巫统对马来人更有号召力，但一马公司丑闻爆发以来，加上糟透的经济政策如消费税、汽油上涨，还有削减医疗和教育等公共开支，纳吉得到的支持已不大如前，甚至沦为巫统的包袱。对纳吉感到不满的巫统领袖与党员，另外成立了土著团结党，让在野党如今可以接触很多之前走访无门的地区。”

“简单来说，纳吉领导下的巫统，是巫统最为脆弱的时候。”

吉打中间选民如造王者

根据刘镇东，国阵在2013年大选赢得的133席当中，有60席的得票率低于55％，是国阵的边际选区。

他续说，这60席当中，甚至当中有16席的得票率还低于50％。

“以柔佛为例，只要有6％的中间选民转向支持在野党，我们就可以拿下国阵至少11个国会议席，包括柔南的巴西古当（国阵得票49.6％）、蒲来（51％）、地不佬（51％）、丹绒比艾（55%）和新山（55.7％）；柔北的拉美士（49.5％）、昔加末（50.3％）、礼让（50.7％）、麻坡（51％）、士基央（53.2%）和巴莪。”

“在吉打，国阵的8个边际选区为日莱（50.2％）、居林-万拉巴鲁（51％）、本同（51.5％）、马莫（51.9％）、华玲（52.5％）、锡（52.6％）、尤仑（52.8％）及巴东得腊（54.6％）。根据地方民调，在野党（尤其是与土著团结党结盟后）甚至有机会拿下浮罗交怡与古邦巴素。吉打也是一个非常关键的战场，中间选民左右着10个国会议席的去向。”

Source: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/374110#ixzz4a35bxV1j

支持行动党马来西亚政治斗争长跑

2015年6月22日
作者：陈亚伦

陈亚伦（右）与沙末赛益（中）摄于可拉那再也体育场

  马来西亚经过半世纪的长大，看到不少国家越长越衰，总引以为戒。要国家好，虽然我们只有少群正义公民，就必须去芜存菁，不过这是逆流而上的使命。很多人不肯付代价，因为抱着“多一事不如少一事”心态，所以宁愿不敢作出大胆的动作，乱一点不要紧，只要不影响他们的日常作息就足够矣！

        我看到行动党就是国家中流砥柱之一，所以有几方面我要鼓励它们不要心软，政治斗争是长跑接力赛，途中必定很多人放弃，因为许多旁人向你泼冷水，但别放弃，因为陆续会有新血加入阵容。

        一、 制定两线制。因着伊斯兰党在民联不合作，原则上阵线应该不复存在，别藕断丝连，还拉拉扯扯干嘛？行动党必须向伊党高唱那首老歌“再回头我也不要你”，歌词真适合你俩！所以行动党必须致力于找能够合作的伙伴来组新阵线，若加入的政党是以国家利益为大前提的话，两线制的实现机率就会大跃进。

        二、超越种族和宗教的政治。在大马一个多元种族和宗教的国家，单一种族和

单一宗教的政党及政治是国家的致命伤。如果国家的领导人出发点是为了自己的种族和宗教斗争，其实就是转牛角尖，至终没空间好转！行动党是个超种族的政党，但向来都给人有意无意乱骂为华人政党。不过近来行动党做得好，马来族开始加进来，诸如几天前国家文学家沙末赛益加入是好事。它们必须加强招收年轻有为的马来族，好过看伊党面色来浪费时间且模糊了焦点！

        三、带领大马作利民的改革。民联不复存在，找伙伴组阵线，未来政治演变什么

状况都可能出现。开明派 PasMa，基本上从那些人的表现和言论都看到他们有推动改革的品质。他们也表明若成立政党，会收非穆斯林人士作党员。只是美中不足的，乃是它们还沿用 Pas 这个名称，摆脱不了宗教色彩。以宗教治国对异己是不公的，我建议它们采用超越宗教斗争的党号更有说服力。

        不能预料的变化状况可多，包括诸如行动党元老林吉祥曾表达自己的意思，希望那些愿意拯救大马沉沦的人士，无论在朝在野都可以合作。巫统也有一群为了国家的乱七八糟状况而担心的国会议员，加上砂拉越和沙巴的一些国阵国会议员，因着有些对两州人民长期争取的课题受到中央政府无下文对待而不满的，不久他们会不会另有“意中人”呢？那么不必等到第14届全国大选，大马政治真的会实现林吉祥的宏景了吗？这个开斋节之后，将陆续看到清晰状况了吧？

PAS, do you know what is "once bitten, twice shy"?

4:00PM Jun 9, 2015
By Allen Tan

Source of pic: http://www.bharian.com.my/node/41303

PAS, I am so sorry that you may not gain the trust from the non-Muslims, especially from me, again. You have voted to sever relationship with DAP without a debate. You played this game so that all the conservative leaders were voted into the top leadership.

Why were those conservatives so afraid of debate? Because you know the more you debate, the more truth would be seen. For a party which embraces extreme Islam, democracy is seen as a White People’s game!

For the past seven years since the 12th general election (GE) in 2008, your behaviour within Pakatan Rakyat was rather dubious, as you have not given up the hudud agenda completely. True enough, this year you have submitted a private member’s bill to Parliament to seek approval for hudud in Kelantan.

In fact, your ambition to implement hudud is not confined to a single state. You hoped to spread it like wildfire to all states. You even hoped to make Malaysia an Islamic state by forming a unity government with Umno.

PAS made a blunder by wrongly interpreting the last two GE results. Firstly, PAS did worse in the Parliament seats in the 13th GE than the previous one. So they thought they must be more Islamic in order to gain better Muslim support.

Secondly, PAS had gained more non-Muslim support from in the last two GEs, so they took for granted that the latter had no problems with hudud. They tried to test the ground by pressing for the hudud agenda more vigorously. And the result - a disaster! It backfired! Such a foolish move is likened to one hitting one’s own foot with a stone.

It was not Pakatan which betrayed PAS but rather the reverse. DAP criticised PAS out of principle. PAS passed the motion to sever relationship with DAP like it was child’s play. Now PAS is still considering whether to uphold the motion which was passed. PAS, do you know what is ‘once bitten, twice shy?’ It was not only DAP which was hurt, but entire non-Muslims who voted for PAS!

Now, what would I think the next move for Pakatan should be? Either PAS or DAP must leave Pakatan. The coalition could never remain status quo. Because you will never know what PAS would do if Pakatan were to win the next GE. PAS would likely join BN and the latter would rule again. Therefore, a status quo Pakatan will see defeat, because where PAS candidates are, non-Muslims will not vote for them.

MCA and Gerakan will increase their attack on Pakatan over hudud, too.

Abolish the name of ‘Pakatan Rakyat’

As such, I would suggest DAP and PKR to cooperate again, and let there be a new party, say PasMa, to join up together with them. The name of ‘Pakatan Rakyat’ must be abolished in order to kick out PAS, and a new name be replaced. It must be done immediately so that all the voters must get familiarised with the new PasMa party logo.

However, I have a little bit of concern, that is, the Registrar of Societies (ROS) could be a stumbling block. It would delay PasMa’s approval until the last minute. For example, even at this moment, DAP is still in trouble with ROS over which it has yet to receive an official letter from ROS to recognise its party election results which took place several years ago. Could ROS play up with DAP again before GE14?

Malaysia is definitely in need of intervention from God. Let us continue to pray so that Malaysia will move in God’s direction. We need to have a strong opposition coalition to directly fight with BN in GE14. We need to have more people irrespective of race and religion who are righteous to join DAP, PKR and PasMa, since our electoral system is not free and fair. We bless Malaysia and pray that a new Malaysia will rise up which will be a blessing to the nations!

Also published in: http://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/301243

Will we, the 52%, strike back?

Details Created on Friday, 14 November 2014 07:00

 

By Haris Ibrahim

 

11.2 million registered voters cast their votes at the poll at the last general election. 52% voted for a regime change in Putrajaya. I was one of them.

Since the result was announced, to this day I feel cheated.

This week I chatted with Maria Chin Abdullah and Wong Piang Yow on the 'Agree to Disagree…with Haris Ibrahim' show.

And over the last few days, I have ploughed through the report of The People’s Tribunal on the 13^th General Election.

On the Election Commission, the tribunal reported, at page 60 of the report, that it is “hard to escape the conclusion that the EC of Malaysia was designed as an instrument of the ruling party to keep it in power”.

On the matter of constituency boundaries, the tribunal reported that “It is hard to see how having one constituency nine times the size of another in terms of electorate can be described as ‘approximately equal’.

"The EC failed to implement the principle of equal representation in apportionment and districting…there is considerable evidence that these anomalies work in one direction only: to the benefit of the ruling coalition."

To make a long story short, a major factor that led to the 52% being cheated at the 13^th GE was the extensive malapportionment and gerrymandering that afflict our constituencies.

The EC has announced that it is ready to kick off a delimitation exercise which will entail a re-drawing of constituency boundaries, that may even lead to an increase in the number of constituencies, both parliamentary and state.

Should we hope that the EC will look to re-draw boundaries with a view to, as best as it can, equalize the constituencies, or will it continue to serve “as an instrument of the ruling party to keep it in power”?

Maria says she does not trust the EC to serve the interests of the Rakyat.

I, too, do not trust it.

And Wong takes the view that this delimitation exercise offers us, the 52%, the best opportunity to right the inherent wrongs in our present constituency boundaries.

“Haris, we will not have another opportunity like this for another 50 years," was how he put it.

Two things, according to Wong, can be achieved if we are permitted to effectively exercise our constitutional right with regard to this imminent delimitation exercise.

First, we can work towards equalizing our constituencies, aspiring towards achieving the ideal of 1 person, 1 vote, 1 value throughout the constituencies.

Second, and this will go a long way towards helping us achieve the first, to prevent the increase in the number of parliamentary constituencies from the existing 222, which, according to Wong, already far exceeds the number that we actually need.

What is this constitutional right that Wong speaks of? Under the constitution, once the proposed delimitation has been duly gazetted, there is a 30-day period during which objections may be lodged with the EC by a minimum of 100 registered voters in a particular constituency in respect of the proposed re-drawing of that constituency boundary.

Wong warns, however, that there are barriers to the effective exercise of this constitutional right that you and I have.

First, the period for objection is very short: 30 days. Then, you need to have at least 99 others to make up the requisite 100 objectors.

Then comes the biggest barrier.

EC's not being forthcoming with the information that you will need. Let me illustrate this point. I vote in PJ Selatan and Bukit Gasing. EC has just gazetted its proposed delimitation for the whole country. My 30-day period to object has started.

The proposed new boundaries for PJ Selatan and Bukit Gasing are on display at, say, the MBPJ building.

Great. I go and look at it.

But I want to compare this with that of the 21 other parliamentary and 55 other state constituencies in Selangor to see if they are ‘approximately equal’, as stipulated in the 13^th Schedule of the Constitution. No maps of the other constituencies are on display at MBPJ. They are not available online on the EC website.

I call EC and it informs me that I can view the maps of all the other constituencies at the various district offices in all the constituencies!

I tell EC I don’t have the time to go through the state to sight the maps, so I wish to purchase them from EC.

Sorry, not for sale.

So, before the expiry of the 30-day objection period, I will have to travel through the state to the various district offices to sight and make sense of these maps!

Not just me, but 99 others!

So much for EC’s 'Cekap & Iklas' slogan that stares at you when you go to its website!

Are we, the 52%, going to allow the EC to get away with this?

Or do we strike back?

Source: http://www.rakyattimes.com/index.php/columnist/1612-will-we-the-52-strike-back-haris-ibrahim

INDICATIONS FROM KAJANG: Simply IMPOSSIBLE for BN to win another general election!

Tuesday, 25 February 2014 12:33

All indications from the 13th GE to now point to the obvious fact that Barisan Nasional (BN) will not be able to win another general election. The reasons for this are wide and varied but most notably are that support for the governing coalition is beginning to go on a downward spiral.

The present furor over the Kajang by-election will serve to confirm that support for the BN is no longer guaranteed as in the past. This is because all indications to the run-up to the 13th GE showed BN losing ground even in constituencies which were considered as their fixed deposit.

The Kajang by-election, expected to be contested by BN-MCA representative, Chew Mei Fun, is really a pitiful situation for the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA). In trying to win back the Malaysian Chinese support, they have opted to offer Mei Fun as the “sacrificial lamb” on behalf of BN.

By all accounts, Mei Fun is a solid candidate. She is well respected and admired not only within the Chinese community but also with the other races. This is because she comes across as a sincere, hardworking and caring person.

While Mei Fun’s heart may be with serving the people, she is also seen as being manipulated at present by MCA and UMNO to try and pull off an upset in the Kajang by-election to be contested by political heavyweight Anwar Ibrahim.

The ploy of the MCA leadership is cunning and sly to make use of Mei Fun’s credentials with the people while she comes across as politically naive and gullible in allowing herself to be made use of by the BN leadership.

This is also something sad to witness. Mei Fun’s unquestioning loyalty to the BN is to be lauded in taking on the challenge of standing in the Kajang by-election which is really a political suicide stance by her on behalf of winning back support for BN-MCA.

But given the current political climate and scenario in Malaysia, Mei Fun’s hopes, dreams and aspirations of MCA and the BN regime are expected to come to a dismal end.

The fate of the other candidates in the by-election can be deemed inconsequential as they are just expected to be “passengers” making up the numbers of the by-election.

What the Kajang by-election is also expected to do is to pave the way for Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to seize the power to govern Malaysia from Putrajaya.

Why BN can never win another general election?

While for some Malaysians this might not need any explaining, it is really a matter of time before most Malaysians, especially the voting population, begin to realize why there is a gradual but certain withdrawal of support for BN.

If this withdrawal of voter support for BN was felt and witnessed in the 13th GE, it is now beginning to gain momentum and will continue to do so to the run up to the next general election.

BN is expectedly expected to lose more and more support and there may even be the possibility of a snap general election’s even before BN’s term of government expires.

The actual reasons for this growing show of support to PR and Malaysians of all walks of life turning their backs on BN is simply because the people have had enough. Malaysians are sick and tired and fed-up with the pathetic governance of BN and their corrupt and inept ways.

This is why in many worldwide rankings and ratings Malaysia have witnessed a drop in nearly all of these because Malaysians are terribly unhappy and miserable with how the country is being governed by BN in such a poor and shoddy manner.

The BN government has only themselves to blame for this situation. What is expected to evolve is that the BN leadership will try to curry favor with the people as usual. But this is a case of going off the deep end as Malaysians have had enough of buying the BN bull.

While even with support from the Elections Commission (EC), the next general elections, even though it will still not be free and fair polls, is set to witness an overwhelming show of support by Malaysians for PR that there is no way BN can put a stop to it.

After more than half a century of BN governance, Malaysians especially the Malay heartland is expected to show such great support for PR that it will be a landslide victory for the alternative government to come to power.

How it’s shaping up for the next general election?

Some people might think all this is premature and foolish, the fact that BN is on its way out. But witness the fact that state-by-state there are already changes barely one year after the 13thGE. And most of this openly shows that PR is now the preferred choice of the Malaysian voter.

If in the last general election, PR won the popular vote, barely ten months away and they have seized the initiative to capitalize on the popular vote to make much further gains. This is how the trend is expected to be from now till the next general election.

PR is expected to make gains in every state and federal territory. It is envisaged that Penang, Selangor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Perak, Kedah, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak and Negeri Sembilan and the Federal Territories of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya is where PR is expected to gain greater favor from the voters.

There will of course be the die-hard BN faithful. But they will be relegated into a minority opposition representing BN in parliament. PR is set to gain a wide show of support and it is beginning to show with the Kajang by-election providing the “acid test.”

The Kajang by-election is set to catapult Anwar Ibrahim and PR to the forefront from which they will be able to dominate and have power and control of the Malaysian voter base. This is the time for which many Malaysian fence-sitters have been waiting for and they are expected to tip in favor of PR.

By going about showing support to PR firmly, the numerous Malaysians who were last minute voters for BN will no longer allow themselves to be swayed or tricked or deceived now by the political ploys of BN. Their show of support most definitely this time round will be firmly with PR all the way. - Malaysia Chronicle

Last modified on Tuesday, 25 February 2014 12:57
Source: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=232282:indications-from-kajang-simply-impossible-for-bn-to-win-another-general-election&Itemid=2#ixzz2uK9PP8ym 

2013年终回顾马来西亚大事件及探讨未来趋势

       2013年到了年终了！在此回顾大马一年大事件，顺便探讨未来的政治与经济趋势。505第13届大选后至今，朝野的各种动作，真令人民感到摇头绝望。这边厢国阵一连串的涨价起税的措施，那边厢民联执政的雪州大幅度调升议员的薪金，总之人民就是双输。

        505大选，国阵宣言抄袭民联的降车价政策，但执政后就说需要五年才能逐渐办得到！看来或许等下届大选前降少许车价作为“兑现”承诺来赢民心吧？

        国阵胜了首先令人民惊讶的是涨汽油价20仙，接下来提呈2014年预算案宣布削减津贴措施，最大冲击乃宣布2015年4月1日开始征收6%消费税。最近吉隆坡高及300%幅度起门牌税，能源局宣布明年起电费，接着工程部又宣布明年1月1日涨过路费（抗议声中或许推迟至华人新年后实行）。

        时下围绕咖啡店的课题就是涨价，忿民责备那些没有支持改朝换代的选民导致人民吃苦。其实，谈社会课题的人大多数都是城市人。这几个月涨价课题在闹得沸沸扬扬，在乡下却风平浪静，山高皇帝远，反正我种几棵菜钓几条鱼又是一餐！我又没有开车子，没奢侈品，开销不大！51%支持民联，都在城镇，47%支持国阵，都在乡下，然而国阵却执政，无奈乎？

连串涨风会否演变经济萧条？

        一些有经济知识的人士分析，这般的涨风，尤其是实施消费税后，2016年大马或许会进入萧条。下届大选最迟在2018年，若2016年萧条，必定拖到2017年才能够止伤，因此我国可能又会步505大选后尘拖到最后一分钟的2018年才举行。错误政策会积劳成病，所以国阵不要以为现在刚结束大选是蜜月期大肆玩涨政策。

        如果2016年真的出现萧条，对国阵有个坏消息，就是不要忘了砂拉越州最迟在这年州选。甚至砂州提前在2014或2015年选举也未必对国阵有利，因为通膨的火正在燃烧！若砂州变天，就会威胁国阵的全国大选。

        那么你问第14届大选会不会改朝换代？民联三党，我只看到行动党有作为。就在雪州，卸任主席郭素沁说雪州行动党在505大选赢得马来人40%选票，它们要决心下届进一步赢得50%。还有，都是行动党在505大选出尽火力攻打柔佛州，才帮助民联增加七个国会议席。除此，现在行动党在推动砂拉越梦和沙巴梦入乡服务计划。

        而伊斯兰党呢？它们应该先放弃在东马的努力，集中在西马往南马发展。伊党也必须放弃拉拉扯扯跟巫统谈判，斩钉截铁地说服民联支持者它们对巫统已经死心！或许伊党不是真有意跟巫统结合。而是正在玩弄巫统，目的就是让巫统抱着一种希望，事实只在吊吊巫统的瘾！民联要入主中央，必须一直团结。

改变乡下人的思维非易事

        公正党表现如何呢？它们很多党员都是前国阵的失意者，惯于投机，所以跳槽就是他们的本能！目前，公正党最本领的就是揭发国阵丑闻。此举不是不好，希望它们和伊党能够花多点心思下乡铺路，不要让行动党玩独角戏，因为如果不打破国阵掌控乡下票的咒诅，民联永远都是一个在野阵线的！

        至于它们的实权领袖安华，如果他有林吉祥的一半勇气，就谢天谢地了，505大选他敢闯的话或许能使民联险胜国阵！怎讲呢？林吉祥冒险自己的政途，抱着不入虎穴，焉得虎子的决心南征柔佛。许多人呼吁安华攻打霹雳州，以提高民联士气，不但能够增加霹州国席，也可以再执掌霹州。但他感情用事，想打不打，最后不愿放弃自己在峇东埔国会选区，因为要报答从他坐牢起一路来选民对他不离不弃！后果就是伊党和公正党连原有的选区都保不住！安华若要执政，必须勇闯国阵堡垒区，尤其是乡下区！

行动党进入西马乡下，及推行砂拉越梦和沙巴梦的服务策略，会有成果吗？我认为服务未必能使民联成功，必须包括传达理念。举例民联的砂州主席峇鲁便（Baru Bian，公正党）在505大选民联及自己失利后，失望下马上写了一封反省信，他说他不再理会那里的人民了。大选前得到选民的积极承诺支持，民联信心满满，选民却临时得到国阵的些少甜头，为了一碗红豆汤而出卖了族群的利益，可悲吗？“尊严”与“肚腹”，起码未来二十年，乡下人还是会选肚腹。所以我认为民联应该筹更多钱先解决他们的肚腹，等赢了大选后才推行建国政策。

第14届大选成绩谁掌权中央政府？我想，只要乡下人民被国阵掌控的媒体垄断，只要国阵大选前派发糖果，只要选区没有公平划分，即，城镇一个国会过万人，乡下一个国会几千人，国阵就能够继续执政。民联必须比上届加几倍努力才有一点希望！

Price hikes will cause BN’s downfall in GE14, DAP rep predicts

By Zurairi ARDecember 28, 2013Kulasegaran also said in a statement that Putrajaya was being insensitive and arrogant for allegedly ignoring public criticism and for refusing to conduct any review of rate hikes.KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 28 — The recent onslaught of price increases will cost Barisan Nasional (BN) its hold on Putrajaya in the 14th general election, DAP vice-chairman M. Kulasegaran predicted today in a warning to the ruling coalition.

The Ipoh Barat MP said BN had already lost public trust as a result of the price hikes, which the pact had said would not happen when canvassing for votes in the recent 13th federal polls.

In a statement here, Kulasegaran agreed with criticisms from his Umno political foes — MP Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad — who had condemned the sudden sharp increases of taxes and rates, which came in rapid succession shortly after the May polls.

“BN will not only lose votes due to the implementation of painful measures, it will also pay the price for misleading the people as many voters now know that the measures were only postponed due to BN’s desperation to win the 13th general election,” the leader said in the statement.

“Now, the BN government not only has to deal with the nation’s chronic budget deficit, it has to deal with ‘trust deficit’ of the people due to its misleading of the people at the 13th general election.”

Kulasegaran also insisted that Putrajaya was being insensitive and arrogant for allegedly ignoring public criticism and for refusing to conduct any review of rate hikes.

“Let me tell Najib that he can ignore public criticisms and he can forget and abandon his ‘People First’ slogan, but the voters will know which party to vote for at the next general election,” he warned Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

On Monday, Nur Jazlan was quoted in Malay daily Sinar Harian as saying that the increase in the prices of goods and services will result in BN losing more votes in GE14.

In addition, voters living in Kuala Lumpur and other major cities who have already rejected BN in the May polls will be more incensed by the price hike.

Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had also urged Putrajaya this week to balance the national budget by trimming its own expenditure before looking to add to the financial burdens of Malaysians.

The nation’s longest-serving prime minister pointed out that there was ample opportunity to reduce wastage and leakages as evidenced by the annual Auditor-General’s report, before resorting to new and higher taxes.

Since September, Putrajaya has embarked on aggressive cost-cutting measures after pressure grew for it to rein in a chronic budget deficit that can be traced back to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 and which has left Malaysia’s national debt at just below a critical legal ceiling.

Among others, it has reduced fuel subsidies, removed price controls for sugar, allowed an increase in electricity tariffs and confirmed the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) all within the space of four months.

Source: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/price-hikes-will-cause-bns-downfall-in-ge14-dap-rep-predicts#sthash.prT3emj8.dpuf

- 

High-level Pakatan Rakyat GE14 Strategic Council to capture Putrajaya

Top priority for Pakatan Rakyat is to set up a high-level PR 14GE strategic council to plan for the capture of federal government in Putrajaya in next general elections

Congratulations are in order to PAS leaders and delegates for a very successful 59th Muktamar at national, youth and wanita levels, causing great disappointments to UMNO plotters and conspirators who had worked overtime through their printed or social media in cyberspace to sow dissension and distrust within PAS ranks and to sabotage the unity of purpose of Pakatan Rakyat and giving hope to enlightened Malaysians who comprise the majority of the electorate that two-coalition politics in Malaysia is here to stay as it is very much alive and kicking.

PAS Deputy President Mohamad Sabu struck the nail on the head when he pointed out in his winding-up speech at the 59th Muktamar that PAS would only be a regional party confined to the east coast of the peninsula if it had not entered into a pact with PKR and DAP in Pakatan Rakyat.

As Sabu succinctly said:

“Without Pakatan, our area of dominance would only stretch from Rantau Panjang (in northern Kelantan) to Kemaman (southern Terengganu).

“But with Pakatan, we conquered Selangor and, God willing, it will be Johor next.”

In 1999, when PAS benefitted most from the backlash against BN because of the 1998 political and economic crisis, it won 27 parliament and 98 state seats making it the largest opposition party.

However, 93% and 86% of the parliament and state seats won by PAS was in its “Northern” heartland of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

In 2004, as a result of the Pak Lah “Tsunami”, PAS was reduced to 6 parliament and 33 state seats (100% and 94% of which, respectively, were in the Northern states).

2008 marked a significant shift in PAS’s support outside the 4 Northern States. PAS won 23 parliament and 83 state seats in total, out of which 70% and 76% were in the 4 Northern States.

In 2013, PAS won 2 fewer parliament seats (21 vs 23) but won 2 more state seats (85 vs 83) and this time, 67% and 66% of parliament and state seats respectively were in the 4 Northern States (See Table 1 below)

State	1999		2004		2008		2013
	Parl.	State	Parl.	State	Parl.	State	Parl.	State
Perlis	0	3	0	1	0	1	0	1
Kedah	8	12	1	4	6	16	1	9
Kelantan	10	41	5	24	9	38	9	32
Terengganu	7	28	0	4	1	8	4	14
Penang	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	1
Perak	2	3	0	0	2	6	2	5
Pahang	0	6	0	0	0	2	1	3
Selangor	0	4	0	0	4	8	4	15
KL	0	NA	0	NA	1	NA	0	NA
Negeri Sembilan	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Melaka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Johor	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4
P.Msia	27	98	6	35	23	83	21	85
Perlis, Kedah, K’tan & T’gganu	25	84	6	33	16	63	14	56
Others	2	14	0	2	7	20	7	29
Northern %	92.6%	85.7%	100.0%	94.3%	69.6%	75.9%	66.7%	65.9%
Others %	7.4%	14.3%	0.0%	5.7%	30.4%	24.1%	33.3%	34.1%

Being part of Pakatan has helped PAS venture beyond its core 4 northern states.

The setback faced by PAS in Kedah in 2013 cannot be explained in terms of PAS participation in Pakatan but more so because of internal factors. Similar explanations can be used for the slight decrease in support for PAS in Kelantan.

If being part of Pakatan hurt PAS in the Malay heartland, then PAS would not have made gains in Terengganu.

Moving forward, it is clear that the states which have and will continue to experience the largest population growth in Peninsular Malaysia are Selangor, KL and Johor. These are where most of the new seat increases (parliament and state) will occur.
Many of the new seats will be ethnically ‘mixed’ seats.

Hence, if PAS wants to continue to make inroads beyond its 4 Northern States, it must work together in the context of Pakatan to maximize its Malay as well as non-Malay support. In the 4 Northern States, PAS must look internally to strengthen itself and Pakatan.

Another way of examining PAS’ performance out on a state by state basis is to analyse the % of votes obtained by PAS in the seats contested by PAS in each state.

This information is shown in Table 2 below.

State	Parliament (As a % of Votes in PAS Seats)				Change 1999 to 2013	Change 2004 to 2013
	1999	2004	2008	2013
Perlis	44.5%	35.6%	44.5%	44.7%	0.2%	9.1%
Kedah	48.4%	42.1%	50.6%	46.4%	-1.9%	4.4%
Kelantan	60.5%	47.2%	55.1%	54.4%	-6.2%	7.2%
Terengganu	58.7%	44.2%	44.9%	48.9%	-9.8%	4.7%
Penang	30.0%	28.2%	38.4%	46.8%	16.8%	18.6%
Perak	44.3%	35.0%	48.1%	43.6%	-0.7%	8.6%
Pahang	44.0%	32.6%	39.7%	42.1%	-1.9%	9.5%
Selangor	43.3%	32.6%	51.9%	54.3%	11.0%	21.7%
WPKL	47.5%	27.3%	48.7%	44.3%	-3.2%	17.1%
Melaka	34.0%	21.4%	29.4%	28.9%	-5.1%	7.5%
Negeri Sembilan	34.4%	23.0%	30.8%	39.5%	5.1%	16.4%
Johor	28.1%	17.6%	28.8%	35.2%	7.2%	17.6%
P.Msia	47.5%	34.4%	45.3%	47.3%	-0.2%	12.9%

PAS support in Kelantan and Terengganu reached its highest level in 1999 (60.5% and 58.7% respectively). PAS support in Kedah was the highest in 2008 when it won 50.6% of total votes in the seats it contested in. In 2013, even though PAS support is lower in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu compared to 1999, it is still much higher than in 2004.

At the same time, PAS’ support outside the 4 Northern States have increased significantly since 1999 especially in Penang (16.8% increase), Selangor (11.0%), Negeri Sembilan (5.1%) and Johor (7.2%). This shows that being part of Pakatan has clearly paid dividends for PAS in these states.

Table 2: % of votes won by PAS in PAS contested parliament seats (1999 to 2013)

Being part of Pakatan definitely helped PAS win two new parliament seats in 2013 that it could not have won without Pakatan’s support.

In Temerloh, a 63% Malay, 26% Chinese, 9% Indian seat, PAS won with a 1070 majority with very strong support coming from the 35% non-Malay voters in this seat.

In Sepang, a 59% Malay, 23% Chinese, 18% Indian seat, PAS won with a 1142 majority against a former UMNO Minister again with very strong support coming from the 41% non-Malay voters in this area.

For PAS to win back some of the marginal seats which it lost such as Sungai Besar (34% non-Malay), Kuala Selangor (36% non-Malay) and Titiwangsa (32% non-Malay), it must utilize the strength of the Pakatan brand and cooperation.

It is not just PAS which had benefitted from its partnership in Pakatan Rakyat, as the same case can be made for both the DAP and PKR as well.

There can be no doubt that by forming the coalition, the three component parties of DAP, PKR and PAS could not only individually win greater number of parliamentary and state assembly seats than when they are contesting on their own, they could also achieve a greater sum total of the overall number of parliamentary and state assembly seats countrywide.

The top priority for Pakatan Rakyat at present is to set up a high-level PR 14GE strategic council to plan for the capture of federal government in Putrajaya in next general elections as well as to achieve optimum election results for PR in the various states.

Source: http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2013/11/25/top-priority-for-pakatan-rakyat-is-to-set-up-a-high-level-pr-14ge-strategic-council-to-plan-for-the-capture-of-federal-government-in-putrajaya-in-next-general-elections/#more-25833