Saturday, March 12, 2011

Blatant abuses trademark of 16 by-elections

Please support reform on the Election Commission. Malaysia cannot progress if elections are dirty and unfair. This statement by Bersih 2.0 is a timely document.
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Bersih 2.0
Mar 12, 11
1:48pm

The elections of March 8, 2008 represented an important step towards democratisation. Bersih 2.0 is concerned that this process of democratisation will be reversed without genuine electoral reform.

Bk 2.0 lists seven urgent electoral reforms that should be addressed before the next general election. The 16 by-elections since 2008 have seen a blatant misuse of state apparatus and other unfair tactics some of which violate the Elections Offences Act. Regrettably, the Election Commission (EC) has failed to act impartially and proactively to promote free, fair and clean elections.

Bersih 2.0, therefore, urges the public to be ready to step up pressure for serious reform as they did in 2007 if the federal government and the EC continue to ignore reasonable and legitimate demands for real electoral reform. If EC continues without bringing reforms, the Sarawak elections will serve as a guide for mass support for democracy.

Misconduct in by-elections

If the 16 by-elections since 2008 are an indicator of what is to come, the coming Sarawak elections and the next general elections will be seriously marred by blatant abuse of state power, vote-buying, transfer of voters, phantom voters, imbalanced media coverage and intimidation.

The most disturbing trend is the unashamed abuse of governing power by the federal government to pressure the voters to exchange votes for development something that the citizen is entitled to as of right.

The infamous line, “you help me, I help you” first uttered by the Prime Minister in the Sibu by-elections is now repeated by the Sarawak deputy chief minister to entice the voters to vote for them in the coming state elections.

The EC has unfortunately refused to act, giving the impression to the public that they are helpless to check offences under the very legislation they should ensure compliance of.

The EC could have lodged a police report against the politicians under Section 10 (bribery) of the Election Offences Act 1954, which will serve as a moral sanction. They choose instead to leave it to the other agencies like the MACC and the police, which we know is a pointless exercise.

Equally worrying is the vote-buying through dinners and lucky draws by the suspicious 1Malaysia group in Galas, Tenang, Merlimau and Kerdau. The EC ought to have lodged police reports to have the group investigated under Section 8 (treating), Election Offences Act 1954 since these dinners and lucky draws were only organised in by-elections and attended by politicians from the BN party.

More importantly and of great concern is that politicians show no respect or regard for the law of this country that they of all people, are duty-bound to uphold.

The partiality of EC is also demonstrated in the choice of the by-election dates. Six out of eight PR-held seats had their polling on a weekday, making it difficult for out-of-town voters to return to vote. In sharp contrast, six out of eight BN-held seats had their polling on a weekend and the remaining two (Batang Ai and Batu Sapi) were held simultaneously with one or more PR-held seats, on a weekday.

Bersih 2.0 disputes EC's claim that they are powerless.

Whenever faced with blatant abuse in the electoral process, the EC reacts by saying they are powerless to act. For reform of electoral laws, the EC also claim that they need to follow the decisions of the cabinet which instructs the Attorney-General Chambers.

This is an insult to the wide powers they are given under the federal constitution and the Election Offences Act and to the public interest that they hold in trust. At the very least, the EC must make reports on blatant election offences and propose to the public the necessary reforms they see fit regardless of the cabinet's preferences.

Demands for seven major reforms

To ensure the legitimacy of future governments and political stability, we urge the EC and the BN federal government to initiate the following seven major reforms:

1. Automatic voter registration – As it stands, more than four million eligible citizens are still not registered as voters. This includes many who have submitted their registration forms but which have yet to be processed by the EC.

Automatic voter registration, by synchronising the EC database and the National Registration Department database, can easily resolve this issue. It can also remove multiple registrations and deceased voters. No credible argument against automatic voter registration has been advanced to date.

2. Postal voting reform – the recent increase of postal voters is highly suspicious. The EC's claim that many spouses of police personnel have opted for postal voting is in fact unlawful as the by-laws – Elections (registration of electors) Registrations and Elections (postal voting) Registrations have no provision at all for the spouses of police personnel to be registered as voters. The present arrangement with a separate roll of postal voters is rigid, open to abuse and completely unnecessary.

Postal voting (or absentee voting in general) should be compulsory to none but available to all voters with valid grounds for being away from the constituency on the polling day.

With a longer campaign period, the current practice which allows the election workers to apply to vote with postal ballots on an ad hoc basis can be extended to the entire electorate.

This will not only help all overseas Malaysians but also East Malaysians who work in West Malaysia. Absentee voting must only apply where the voter is physically unable to be present.

3. Indelible ink – Indelible ink is the most straight forward way to prevent multiple voting. This was agreed by the Election Commission itself in 2007 before making a U-turn a few days before polling day in 2008, wasting RM 2.4 billion in tax-payers' money. (Host of blog think the figure was a mistake. The right one should be RM240 million.)

For the next general elections, indelible ink must be implemented to put to rest any allegations of multiple voting.

4. A minimum campaign period of 21 days – The 16 by-elections show a trend in a reduced campaign period from 10 days in Permatang Pauh to 8 days in Merlimau and Kerdau. This raises questions whether the campaign period for the next general elections may be as short as in 2004, 8 days.

To allow voters to make an informed choice and to reduce intensity of campaigning activities, Bersih 2.0 wants the campaign period to be set at a minimum 21 days, which is only half of what was granted by the British Government for Malaya's first general election in 1955. There is all the more reason to extend the campaign period to cater for overseas voters.

5. Free and fair media access – All contesting parties and candidates should have free access to all state media and fair access to private media. Bersih 2.0 demands that the Election Commission request the Radio and Television Malaysia and Bernama provide airtime for all parties and organise televised debates for the party leaders.

This is completely within the power of the EC as Article 115(2) of the federal constitution stipulates that “all public authorities shall on the request of the Commission give the Commission such assistance in the discharge of its duties as may be practicable”.

6. Prohibition of vote buying through development offer and treating – The Election Commission (EC) must put a stop to the de facto vote-buying practices through development pledges ala “you help me, I help you” and treating by the suspicious 'NGO' 1Malaysia group.

The EC should move immediately to issue directives to all incumbent federal, state and local governments not to link any pledges and delivery of development and public works to voters' choice in the elections.

The EC must also press for the investigation of the PM, the Deputy CM of Sarawak and the 1Malaysia group and all other parties carrying out similar activities, under Section 10 (Bribery) and Section 8 (Treating) of the Election Offences Act 1954. In the long run, the EC should propose a legislation or amendments to the existing laws to promote administrative neutrality and level playing fields.

7. Impartial Constituency Redelineation – As the previous constituency redelineation exercises have been marred by blatant gerrymandering and malapportionment, Bersih 2.0 urges the EC to be transparent and professional in the next exercise which may begin in March 2011.

Specifically, Bersih 2.0 requests the EC to subscribe to the following criteria:

  • No boundary of parliamentary or state constituency should cross the boundary of local authorities or administrative districts.
  • Within the boundary of local authorities or administrative districts, constituencies should consist of areas with similar socio-economic or cultural interests.
  • No neighbourhood should be partitioned arbitrarily into different constituencies.
  • Within the same state, in terms of electorate size, the largest state constituency must not be larger than half of the smallest parliamentary constituency.

The statement was issued by the Bersih 2.0 steering committee.

Source: http://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/158426

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

回教国制度还能持续吗?

回教党近来大发推进回教国热心,除了情人节不准回教徒庆祝以外,禁酒和禁赌早已在执政的吉兰丹州执行,不过现在更激进地取走非回教徒商家的大马彩彩票。

最近万里茂和吉道补选,回教党都输得很难看!行动党的陆兆福和陈国伟催促回教党检讨禁卖彩票的政策,认为它在这两场补选中吓走华人票。我认为回教党之所以在补选关键时刻特地高调地禁卖彩票乃打错算盘。第一,他们以为华人票已经是铁票,所以这样的政策并不会阻碍华人的支持。第二,既然华人票已经稳定了,就加强拉马来人票。他们想藉着使用更回教化策略,以便获得马来人支持,但回教党大跌眼镜!

从马来人不要支持回教党,可以分析其实马来人,尤其年轻的一代,谢绝回教国。回教党不要以为在传统的执政州属可以理所当然地继续掌权,因为日后老一辈的人被年轻人取代后,年轻人不是有同样的思想的,反而希望能够过一个有自由民主化的生活。

回教党必须看清楚目前在北非和阿拉伯世界的茉莉花革命的导因。兴起革命的人都是年轻人!分析下看到他们这些年轻人其实对政治并不大了解,也不大热衷,明显他们没有政治的目的。他们所希望的东西就是能够拥有民主人权,他们不要继续受制于极权。所以,如果大马人,尤其回教党,仍然认为回教国还是大马的最佳治国制度的话,应该检讨。全世界很快要实现的制度,就是还政于民,人民要公平地选择掌权者,要领导层尊重民主人权。

Friday, March 4, 2011

ACPE Word of the Lord 2011

January 19, 2011

General Announcements, Prophetic News


Each year, the Apostolic Council of Prophetic Elders (ACPE) meets to seek the Lord for the prophetic word. This is a team of respected prophets who have the conviction that they are an Acts 13:1-3 model. This passage notes that it was the Holy Spirit giving the word as a consensus among the group and not just to one prophet. So, even though this is a compilation of the prophecies that we have each brought to the round table meeting, it was the general consensus of the ACPE members that the Holy Spirit was speaking the following prophetic words to us.

The ACPE has met now since 1999. This year, for the first time, we invited a group of emerging young leaders to join us. As a result, we probably had the most powerful time of seeking the Lord that we have ever known. At the end of the meeting, a time of impartation took place.

While we are calling this a prophecy for 2011, it is to be understood that the time frames for the fulfillment of prophecies cannot only be confined to a calendar year period, thus this constitutes more of a seasonal prophetic word.

It is also a given that, in some cases, the obedience of the people to respond can either delay, change, or alter what we have seen by the Spirit during this time.

The Year of Transitions

This will either be a year of open heavens or a year of the perfect storm.

The number 11 has the biblical meaning of transitions. 2011 is the year where we are transitioning from one place to another. Where we will end up at the end of this time depends, in many regards, on how we respond to the leading of the Holy Spirit.

2011 will be a year of great pressure and stress, particularly, the first three months when it will seem as if we are in a toe-to-toe battle with the forces of evil.

This is a Tipping Point Year

If, in the middle of the pressure of the season, we faint and lose heart, the scale will tip away from us and there is a possibility of great loss and defeat.

The Year of the Straits

The number 11 can be likened to places in the earth such as the Straits of Gibraltar between Spain and Morocco. We will, at times, feel constricted, but the narrowing of the way will only cause us to go to the new place that God has for us in the season if we do not fail the test during the pressure.

The Birth Canal

Another analogy that the Lord gave us was the number 11 is like a birth canal. The baby being born is going from the comfort of the womb to the stress and discomfort of being born into a new, large life.

Dreaming Dreams

Joseph shared his dreams with his 11 brothers; represented by 11 stars in Genesis 37:9 and it caused great relational stress. God will pour out a season of dreams and visions this year even among the very young. Watch out for relational stress and keep your heart right in the middle of it.

The Year of Great Expectations

Expect the unexpected in this coming year.

Hebrews 11:11 is key:

“By faith, Sarah herself also received strength to conceive seed, and she bore a child when she was past the age, because she judged Him faithful who had promised.”

Expect a miracle! God wants to break the barrenness in your life of hope deferred. Many have given up on their dreams and downsized what they believe for because of the times. God’s Kingdom is an ever-increasing Kingdom and He is for advance and not retreat.

This is not a time to compromise what God has said to you, but rather to believe that all things are possible. God is not a man that He would lie. If He said he would do something, He has not changed His mind.

A Time of Preparation, Going Deeper into God and Intimacy

New assignments will be passed out in this year of transition for those who do not draw back in the season of testing and fire. Go deeper in God and draw refreshing from His presence and you will make it to your new place of advancement and anointing.

Proverbs 20:5:

“Knowing what is right is like deep water in the heart; a wise person draws from the well within.”

Creative Miracles

The level of the miraculous will increase with the Creator loosing miracles of creation that will directly oppose the spirits of humanism and intellectualism.

The Restoration of the Tabernacle of David

Great emphasis will be upon worship again this year. Worship is the key! Many new 24-hour houses of worship will spring up across the world and result in an open heaven over nations and many souls saved. It is harvest time!

Acts 15:16-17:

“After this I will return and will rebuild the tabernacle of David, which has fallen down; I will rebuild its ruins, and I will set it up; So that the rest of mankind may seek the Lord, even all the Gentiles who are called by My Name, says the Lord who does all things.”

Great Harvest of those in the Arts/Entertainment Field

Extraordinary moves of God will occur in the entertainment and motion picture industry. Bold, new, unashamed voices will arise and many will listen to their testimonies.

Word for the United States

The nation hangs in the balance and this is not a time to grow weary of praying and acting on behalf of righteousness and justice. Don’t let the pressure of the season cause you to retreat into entertainment rather than standing on top of what is happening around you.

We must watch for terrorist attacks as many are having dreams and visions of coming attacks.

One of the illustrations given to us was the phrase, “Are you ready to rumble?” This is used among wrestling aficionados as the match begins. It does more than alert the contestants that the match will start; it also creates an excited expectation in the crowd. God is asking the Christians in America today, “Are you ready to rumble?” The game is at hand and there needs to be a climax of excitement as we anticipate God’s next move in the land.

2011 is one of the most critical years in the nation’s history and the foundations are burning and are in danger of being destroyed. We must fast and pray and take extraordinary measures to “rumble” both the heavens and the earth.

The Eleventh Hour 11-11-11

This date will have a special significance in this “eleventh hour” time frame.

John 11:11 says:

“Lazarus our friend has fallen asleep, but I go that I may awaken him from slumber.”

The Mayflower Compact was signed on 11-11, 1620 and God is looking for a new generation of reformers who will make a covenant with God and others to stand and fight to awaken this nation in this dire moment of history.

Proverbs 11:11:

“By the blessing of the upright the city is exalted, But it is overthrown by the mouth of the wicked.”

World

There is a worldwide student-led volunteer movement being birthed across the face of the earth. Satan is going to try and start wars such as he did when the first student volunteer movement started around the turn of the 20th century. World War I effectually shut down the movement as students went to war at times against each other. We must pray against the starting of a third world war, as Satan wants to escalate world events for His purposes.

Psalms 110:3:

“In the day of Your power your youth shall be volunteers.”

Korea

Particular prayer needs to take place for Korea as one of the greatest missions movements is destined to come out of this nation that will go to the ends of the earth.

We also strongly felt that President Lee should stand firm against North Korea’s aggression.

Middle East

A more widespread persecution will arise against the believers if we do not begin to intercede for the Middle East. However, there will be a move of God of the youth in nations such as Syria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia who will not love their lives unto death.

Economy

We must intercede against hyperinflation that will strangle the ability of people of give to world missions.

Intellectual Properties

A great release of new wealth will come from ideas given from God in the form of intellectual properties. A new creative anointing of ideas for those who will use the wealth for the advancement of God’s Kingdom.

Children

We are on the verge of a great Children’s Awakening that will span the globe. Child evangelists will begin to preach in churches and large arenas and thousand will be saved and healed.

Compiled by:

Cindy Jacobs

ACPE Convening Apostle

January 5, 2011

Source: http://www.generals.org/news/single-view/article/acpe-word-of-the-lord-2011/

Saturday, February 26, 2011

It's Time to 'Go Beyond'!

chuckpierceI am calling you from beyond! You have been held in a place that I am calling you from. I am beyond where you are now. Come from where you are to beyond! Come from where you are to beyond! Come from where you are to beyond! For I am marshalling My army and I am calling you forth. I am causing you to be raised up. I am calling even the dry bones to come together this season. I am calling together and raising up this mighty army. You will go forth in My name. You will see kingdoms brought down. You will see kingdoms raised up. This is the season and the hour that I am marshalling My army.

You are going beyond in relationships. The friends of last season will now become the allies in the new season. The enemies of the last season may not be your enemy in this season. Go beyond your idea and your concept. I am bringing you into a new place where you are seeing beyond.

In the past I told you to look and look again. But in this season I am telling you to look, look again and look beyond. Look, look again and look beyond because beyond is the fullness of the promise. Beyond is the clustering that I have sent. Beyond is the positioning. Beyond is the alignment. Beyond is the release. So look, look again and look beyond!

Go beyond the natural into the supernatural. This is the time to heal and go with signs and wonders following. Beyond is into eternity. I am going to give you eyes to see the plans of eternity past, present and the future. I will begin to make a whole picture from the past to the present and to the future.

Fear has caused you to hang on to your finances. Fear has caused you to hang on to your past. Let go of your past—it is Mine now. Let go of your control over finances—they are mine. Let go of your life—it is mine.

As you go through this tunnel of change and beyond, I am taking you through a season of strategy. I'm giving you a strategy for the situation that is ahead. Go through the tunnel so you can get your strategy. I'm giving you a strategy to overcome the strategy of Satan. I am giving you a plan to overcome the enemy. This is the season that you move beyond. There is a strategy for you. Go through the tunnel!

Look again. Look again because I, Myself, have been hiding things from you. I, Myself, have hidden things until this moment. You have looked and you have asked, but I have hidden things from you. But now look again because I am bringing it to manifestation. I am bringing it into a new place. You must step forward and reach for it. I am calling you to reach.

Look! Look at Me in a way you've not seen Me, and you will see your enemy in a way you've not seen your enemy. If you will look at Me in My greatness and My holiness, you will see your enemy and you will see the strategy to wither your enemy. I am a Holy God and I am beginning to weight Myself upon My people. You are shielded in ways you do not know. The enemy is dreading you. You will see your enemy rise up one way, but that enemy must flee from the place that you stand so that you can advance in days ahead. Look at Me and see your enemy from My eyes, and watch your enemy flee.

About the author: Chuck D. Pierce is the president of Glory of Zion International Ministries in Denton, Texas. He is known for his prophetic gift and has been used by God to mobilize prayer throughout the world. Pierce is also the author of many books, including the best-selling Redeeming the Time. For more information about his ministry or to purchase resources, visit his website at gloryofzion.org.


Source: http://www.charismamag.com/index.php/prophetic-insight/30312-a-time-to-go-beyond#readmore#ixzz1F1yjK8D7

Friday, February 25, 2011

"Islamic State" System fading?

In Malaysia, there are some Islamic groups that are fervent about pushing through their "Islamic State" agenda. For most Non-Muslims in the country, they are very much against the political system.

We have heard of many undemocratic practices among the Islamic States worldwide. If there are those who think that "Islamic State" is the way to go, the following article will enlighten your perspective:


This is not an Islamic revolution

Published 15 February 2011

The uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia show that Islam is now less potent politically, even as its social dominance grows

In Europe, the popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East have been interpreted using a model that is more than 30 years old: the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. Commentators have been expecting to see Islamist groups - the Muslim Brotherhood and their local equivalents - either at the head of the movement or lying in wait, ready to seize power. But the discretion of the Muslim Brotherhood has surprised and disconcerted them: where have the Islamists gone?

Look at those involved in the uprisings, and it is clear that we are dealing with a post-Islamist generation. For them, the great revolutionary movements of the 1970s and 1980s are ancient history, their parents' affair. The members of this young generation aren't interested in ideology: their slogans are pragmatic and concrete - "Erhal!" or "Go now!". Unlike their predecessors in Algeria in the 1980s, they make no appeal to Islam; rather, they are rejecting corrupt dictatorships and calling for democracy. This is not to say that the demonstrators are secular; but they are operating in a secular political space, and they do not see in Islam an ideology capable of creating a better world.

The same goes for other ideologies: they are nationalist (look at all the flag-waving) without advocating nationalism. Particularly striking is the abandonment of conspiracy theories. The United States and Israel - or France, in the case of Tunisia - are no longer identified as the cause of all the misery in the Arab world. The slogans of pan-Arabism have been largely absent, too, even if the copycat effect that brought Egyptians and Yemenis into the streets following the events in Tunis shows that the "Arab world" is a political reality.

This generation is pluralist, undoubtedly because it is also individualist. Sociological studies show that it is better educated than previous generations, better informed, often with access to modern means of communication that allow individuals to connect with one another without the mediation of political parties - which in any case are banned. These young people know that Islamist regimes have become dictatorships; neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia holds any fascination for them. Indeed, those who have been demonstrating in Egypt are the same kinds of people as those who poured on to the streets to oppose Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009. (For propaganda reasons, the regime in Tehran has declared its support for the opposition movement in Egypt, though this is little more than a settling of scores with Hosni Mubarak.) Many of them are religious believers, but they keep their faith separate from their political demands. In this sense, the movement is "secular". Religious observance has been individualised.

Above all, people have been dem­onstrating for dignity and "respect", a watchword that emerged in Algeria in the late 1990s. And the values to which they are laying claim are universal. But the "democracy" that is being called for is not foreign, and therein lies the difference from the Bush administration's attempt to promote democracy in Iraq in 2003. That did not work, because it lacked political legitimacy and was associated with a military intervention. Today, paradoxically, it is the waning of US influence in the Middle East, together with the pragmatism of the Obama administration, that has allowed a native and fully legitimate demand for democracy to be expressed.

That said, a revolt is not a revolution. The new popular movement has no leaders, no structure and no political parties, which will make the task of anchoring democracy in these former dictatorships difficult. It is unlikely that the collapse of the old regimes will automatically lead to the establishment in their place of liberal democracies, as Washington once hoped would happen in Iraq.

What of the Islamists, those who see in Islam a political ideology capable of solving all of society's problems? They have not disappeared, but they have changed. The most radical of them have left to wage international jihad; they are in the desert with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in Pakistan or the suburbs of London. They have no social or political base. Indeed, global jihad is completely detached from social movements and national struggles. Al-Qaeda tries to present itself as the vanguard of the global Muslim "umma" in its battle against western oppression, but without success. Al-Qaeda recruits deracinated young jihadists who have cut themselves off entirely from their families and communities. It remains stuck in the logic of the "propaganda of the deed" and has never bothered to try to build political structures inside Muslim societies.

Because al-Qaeda tends to concentrate its activities in the west or aims at so-called western targets elsewhere, its actual impact is next to nil.

It is a mistake, therefore, to link the re-Islam­isation that has taken place in the Arab world over the past 30 years with political radicalism. If Arab societies are more visibly Islamic than they were 30 or 40 years ago, what explains the absence of Islamic slogans from the current demonstrations? The paradox of Islamisation is that it has largely depoliticised Islam. Social and cultural re-Islamisation - the wearing of the hijab and niqab, an increase in the number of mosques, the proliferation of preachers and Muslim television channels - has happened without the intervention of militant Islamists and has in fact opened up a "religious market", over which no one enjoys a monopoly. In short, the Islamists have lost the stranglehold on religious expression in the public sphere that they enjoyed in the 1980s.

Dictatorships in the Arab world, though not in Tunisia, have often favoured a conservative Islam that is highly visible but not especially political, and that is obsessed with controlling public morals. (The wearing of the hijab, for instance, has become commonplace.) This has meshed with the "Salafist" movement, which emphasises the re-Islamisation of individuals rather than the development of social movements. What has been perceived in the west as a great, green wave of re-Islamisation is in fact nothing but a trivialisation of Islam: everything has become Islamic, from fast food to women's fashion. The forms and structures of piety, however, have become individualised, so now one constructs one's own faith, seeking out the preacher who speaks of self-realisation, such as the Egyptian Amr Khaled, and abandoning all interest in the utopia of an Islamic state. The Salafists concentrate on the preservation of religious values and have no political programme. Moreover, other religious currents until now regarded as being in decline, such as Sufism, are flourishing once more. This growing diversity of faith goes even beyond the confines of Islam, as in the cases of Algeria and Iran, where there has been a wave of conversions to Christianity.

It is also a mistake to see the dictatorships as defending secularism against religious fanaticism. With the exception of Tunisia, authoritarian regimes in the Arab world have not made their societies secular; on the contrary, they have reached an accommodation with a neofundamentalist form of re-Islamisation in which the imposition of sharia law is called for without any discussion of the nature of political power. Everywhere, official Muslim institutions, based on an austere conservative theology, have been co-opted by the state. This has become so effective that the traditional clerics trained at al-Azhar University in Cairo no longer have anything to say about the main social and political questions of the day. They have nothing to offer a younger generation looking for ways of living their faith in a more open world.

These developments have also affected Islamist political movements, as is exemplified by the changing face of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and al-Nahda, the "renaissance party", in Tunisia. The Muslim Brotherhood has changed in response to troubling events, as much in what seemed like success (the Islamic Revolution in Iran) as in defeat (the repression that has been meted out to it everywhere). A new generation of militants has drawn lessons from this, as have such veterans as Rachid Ghannouchi, founder of al-Nahda. They have understood that seeking to take power in the wake of a revolution leads either to civil war or to dictatorship. And in their struggle against repression, they have come into contact with other political forces and formations. Knowing their own societies well, they are aware that ideology carries little weight within them. They have also learned lessons from Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AK party have succeeded in reconciling democracy, electoral success, economic development and national independence with the promotion of values that are, if not Islamic, at least "authentic".

Above all, the Muslim Brotherhood no longer advocates an alternative economic and social model. The Brothers have become conservative with regard to morality and liberal on the economy. This is without doubt the most striking evolution in their outlook, because, in the 1980s, Islamists claimed to defend the interests of the oppressed classes and called for state ownership of the economy and redistribution of wealth. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt endorses Mubarak's agricultural counter-reforms, which have returned to landowners the right to raise prices and sack tenant farmers. So complete has this transformation been that Islamists are now wholly absent from the social movements active in the Nile Delta, where there has been a resurgence of the "left", particularly of trade union militancy.

However, the embourgeoisement of the Islamists is at the same time an asset for democracy, because it pushes them towards reconciliation and compromise, and into alliances with other political forces. It is no longer a question, therefore, of attempting to establish whether or not dictatorships are the most effective bulwark against Islamism; Islamists have become players in the democratic game. Naturally, they will try to exert control over public morality, but, lacking the kind of repressive apparatus that exists in Iran, or a religious police on the Saudi model, they will have to reckon with a demand for liberty that doesn't stop with the right to elect a parliament. In short, the Islamists will either identify themselves with the conventional, Salafist tradition, abandoning in the process any pretence to reconceive Islam's place in modernity, or else they will make an effort to rethink their understanding of the relationship between religion and politics.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will play a central role in the coming changes as long as the revolt remains largely apolitical. For the moment, this is still the politics of protest; it is not the dawn of a new type of regime. Moreover, Arab societies remain somewhat conservative. The middle classes that developed following the period of economic liberalisation want political stability. They are protesting, above all, against the predatory nature of dictatorship. Here, a comparison between Tunisia and Egypt is illuminating. In Tunisia, the extended Ben Ali clan weakened all its potential allies by refusing to share not only power, but wealth, too. The business class was swindled by the ruling family and the army marginalised both politically and financially. The Tunisian army was poor, and thus had a corporate interest in seeing the advent of a democratic regime that would give it a bigger budget.

In Egypt, by contrast, the regime has had a much larger social base, and the army was involved not just in shoring up political power but also in the administration of the economy, with all the benefits that flowed from that. In this respect, that country is typical of the Arab world. Democratic movements throughout the region will therefore come up against deeply rooted networks of clientelism. Is the demand for democracy capable of overcoming complex arrangements of allegiance and belonging, in the army, among tribes and among the political elite? To what extent will regimes be able to exploit old allegiances - among the Bedouins in Jordan, say, or the tribes of Yemen? Conversely, can such groups themselves become actors in the movement for democratic change? And how will religion adapt to the new situation?

The process of change will undoubtedly be long and chaotic, but one thing is certain: the age of Arab-Muslim exceptionalism is over. Recent events point to profound transformations in Arab societies which have been under way for some time, but which until now have been obscured by the distorting optic of western attitudes towards the Middle East. What the convulsions in Egypt and Tunisia show is that people in those countries have drawn the lessons of their own history. We have not finished with Islam, that is for sure, nor is liberal democracy the "end of history", but we must at least learn to think of Islam in relation to an "Arabic-Muslim" culture that today is no longer closed in on itself - if it ever was.

Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. His most recent book is "Holy Ignorance: When Religion and Culture Part Ways" (C Hurst & Co, £20)
This essay, written exclusively for the New Statesman, was translated from the French by Jonathan Derbyshire

Source: http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2011/02/egypt-arab-tunisia-islamic
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Reading this makes me think that we are a little behind the Arab countries in our social development (as opposed to economic development). Or at least our leaders are, if they don't recognise that despite what they do to suppress democratic urges among people, people will eventually find some way of expressing that want. Like many of the Arab leaders, they cannot see, or don't want to see, the changes that are happening especially among young people. The response to the recent campus elections, where more independent candidates have been elected, is a case in point. Banking on economic growth alone is not enough, as we have seen in the Middle East. Yes, people want jobs and a better life, but that includes being able to breathe and speak, being free. Isn't it interesting that more than 50 years after the end of colonialism, people are still demanding freedom? And very clearly it's not about demanding to wear bikinis in public, as our less intelligent politicians here have suggested in the past, but the freedom to simply decide for themselves what is good for them, without the state shoving it down their throats.

Our leaders would do well to read this and take heed. (And yes, unless you have the academic credentials of Olivier Roy, do please shut up about all these Mat Sallehs preaching democracy, ok? Egypt and Tunisia have clearly shown that democracy is not exclusive to the West.) - Marina Mahathir